Markets remain steady as earnings from major sectors offer insight into current momentum and evolving market leadership.

Key Points:

Markets Flat as Investors Await Data and Earnings

• Equity markets were quiet last week, with small caps under-performing. Investors continue to favor large-cap multi-nationals benefiting from global exposure and a weaker U.S. dollar.

Tariffs and Commodities Driving Volatility

• Trump’s surprising 50% copper tariff sparked price swings. Oil remains range-bound as markets weigh geo-political risks versus strong supply. Barometer maintains exposure through high-quality U.S.-based names like Freeport.

Bitcoin Surge Reflects Rising Legitimacy

•  Bitcoin rose above $122K as regulators consider ETF approvals, signaling increased institutional interest. Crypto is acting more like a macro hedge than a speculative asset.

Q2 Earnings Season Underway

• JP Morgan delivered strong results across trading and wealth management. Netflix, GE Aerospace, and Morgan Stanley—key Barometer holdings—report this week with solid revenue and earnings growth expected.

Tariff Impact and Guidance in Focus

• Earnings calls are being watched closely for how companies are managing tariffs and margin pressure. Analysts expect modest earnings growth, with room for upside surprises and forward-looking guidance remaining key.

Fully Invested in Cyclical Opportunities

• Portfolios remain fully invested with emphasis on financials, industrials, tech, energy, and materials. Investors have reduced defensive exposure as breadth and stock-specific momentum continue to improve.

Nvidia and Semis Get Boost from Trade News

• Nvidia shares rallied after news it may resume exports of its China-specific chip, potentially restoring $15B in revenue. The update supports semi-conductors broadly and reflects easing U.S.–China tensions.

Investor Positioning Still Cautious Despite Strength

• Short interest remains elevated, particularly in tech and small caps. Strong internal indicators, resilient economic data, and orderly bond markets support continued equity strength.

Rising Yields and U.S. Debt Under Watch

•  Long bond yields are climbing on deficit concerns, but low bond market volatility suggests equities can handle gradual increases. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates before September, with inflation and growth data driving the outlook.