Barometer Capital

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Global markets are regaining leadership, with breakouts in the Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and TSX driving momentum. Barometer has boosted international equity exposure while leaning into strength in materials, metals, and Bitcoin as key macro hedges.

Key Points:

Global Markets Regain Leadership

  • Global markets continue to lead, with breakouts in the Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and TSX. Barometer increased international equity exposure from 5% to 10%, with plans to move toward 15% if relative strength persists.

Materials and Metals Gaining Momentum

  • Gold, silver, copper, and uranium remain strong performers, supported by both inflation protection and growing industrial demand. Materials have become a key overweight in portfolios.

Limited Exposure to Traditional Bonds

  • Long-term bond yields remain elevated, reflecting ongoing concerns around fiscal policy and inflation. Barometer continues to hold minimal traditional fixed income exposure.

Macro Pool Delivering Strong Returns

  • The global macro portfolio is up approximately 10–12% year-to-date. Key exposures include precious metals, global equities, industrials, and Bitcoin, with shorts on the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and defensives.

Financials, Industrials, and Materials Lead

  • Financials, industrials, and materials are the largest sector weights, with modest increases in tech. Energy exposure was reduced by ~6%, mostly from natural gas holdings.

Cyclicals Outperforming Defensives

  • Market leadership continues to favour cyclicals over defensives, a trend supported by broadening participation across economically sensitive sectors. Semiconductor breadth has softened slightly but remains in watchable territory.

Bitcoin as a Macro Hedge

  • Bitcoin has returned to strength and is being used as a macro hedge against currency risk and geopolitical uncertainty, held via ETF in separately managed accounts.

Conviction in Core Equity Positions

  • Conviction remains high in names like Fairfax Financial, GE Vernova (benefiting from power grid upgrades), and leading gold producers such as Agnico Eagle and Kinross. Energy exposure was trimmed where relative strength has weakened.

Buybacks Set to Resume Post-Earnings

  • Corporate buybacks are limited during the earnings blackout period, which peaked on July 20. With buybacks resuming, this could act as a tailwind for equities in the coming weeks.