Momentum is widening across global markets, with fresh leadership emerging in sectors from financials to commodities. Even as risks linger, the setup points to opportunity for portfolios positioned with discipline and foresight.
Key Points:
Structural Bull Market Remains in Place
- The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has held its rising 200-day moving average through multiple tests and remains in a structural bull market, up over 320% across 151 months.
- Seasonally, September is historically the weakest month, but because August closed positive, the setup suggests potential resilience.
Breadth Strength is Expanding
- Nearly 90% of global markets are trading above their 200-day moving averages, confirming broad participation.
- Expanding breadth is the single most important indicator of safety — historically, bear markets don’t occur when breadth is rising.
Global Leadership Emerging Beyond U.S.
- Strong performance from Europe (IEUR), Japan, Singapore (EWS), Africa (AFK), China (MCHI), Peru (EPU), and the TSX (^GSPTSE).
- Tactical accounts have raised global equity weights to ~15% (10% in balanced portfolios).
- Global valuations are near historic lows relative to the U.S., making risk/reward favorable.
Commodities and Inflation Hedges in Focus
- Gold (XAUUSD) has broken higher after a multi-month consolidation; central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries (first time since 1996).
- Silver (XAGUSD) is following gold, with early signs of a sustained move.
- Copper producers (HBM, FCX) and uranium (CCJ) are gaining momentum.
- Commodities overall (USCI) have stair-stepped higher for 14 months, signaling inflation hedging remains a key theme.
Financials Lead While Defensives Lag
- Financials (XLF) are the strongest sector; Canadian banks (RY, CM, BMO) all reported strong results and raised dividends.
- Industrials and materials are constructive, with aerospace/defense and senior gold producers (AEM, KGC, AGI) showing leadership.
- Laggards include consumer staples, REITs, and utilities — suggesting investors are not rotating defensively.
Semiconductors: Leaders Outperform
- Nvidia (NVDA) posted strong results: 74% margins, a $60B buyback, and robust earnings growth. Guidance looked light only because China chip sales (~$15B potential) were excluded.
- Broadcom (AVGO) remains another core semi holding.
- The sector overall has stalled at highs, but leaders like Nvidia and Broadcom continue to justify exposure.
Energy Sector Showing Fresh Strength
- The Canadian energy sector (XEG.TO) and U.S. energy (XLE) are turning higher after 18 months of consolidation.
- Positions include Imperial Oil (IMO) and CNQ, with exposure modestly increased this week as breadth within the group improves.
Stock-Specific Portfolio Adjustments
- Celestica (CLS.TO) was recently added for AI/data-center buildout exposure in Canada.
- CrowdStrike (CRWD) was exited after post-earnings weakness.